Monday, June 11, 2012

APR/MAY 2010(2)

Visually, The "spaghetti top" (see previous post) was confirmed by a down draft in the market.

The pink band cross under the gold band a clear visual of a tanking market.
 
here the numbers for this period:
DATE ST MT LT TT BALANCE ST BALANCE MT BALANCE LT BALANCE TT
2010-04-26 916 865 903 2684 $12,726.93 $12,724.84 $12,724.84 $12,724.84
2010-04-27 81 386 876 1343 $12,203.61 $12,201.60 $12,201.60 $12,201.60
2010-04-28 -204 -54 793 535 $12,213.94 $12,211.93 $12,211.93 $12,211.93
2010-04-29 -230 -109 665 326 $12,036.21 $12,034.23 $12,623.33 $12,623.33
2010-04-30 -271 -59 632 302 $12,518.11 $12,516.05 $12,146.04 $12,146.04
2010-05-03 -79 122 717 760 $12,147.57 $12,145.57 $12,471.95 $12,471.95
2010-05-04 -434 -356 277 -513 $12,892.58 $12,011.95 $11,718.61 $11,718.61
2010-05-05 -351 -487 18 -820 $13,002.37 $11,665.97 $11,604.63 $11,381.08
2010-05-06 -519 -720 -325 -1564 $13,850.89 $12,427.29 $10,836.71 $12,123.80
2010-05-07 -395 -633 -415 -1443 $14,508.07 $13,016.92 $10,836.71 $12,699.03
2010-05-10 17 -152 -158 -293 $13,065.10 $11,722.26 $10,836.71 $11,435.99
2010-05-11 126 -48 -48 30 $13,065.10 $11,750.41 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-12 953 222 262 1437 $13,065.10 $11,321.20 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-13 953 312 343 1608 $13,065.10 $11,321.20 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-14 322 275 278 875 $13,065.10 $11,321.20 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-17 83 100 83 266 $13,065.10 $11,321.20 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-18 -459 -98 -144 -701 $13,065.10 $11,321.20 $10,836.71 $11,463.45
2010-05-19 -608 -227 -267 -1102 $13,065.10 $11,330.63 $10,845.73 $11,473.00
2010-05-20 -954 -632 -684 -2270 $13,065.10 $12,163.77 $11,643.21 $12,316.60
2010-05-21 -977 -833 -896 -2706 $13,065.10 $11,895.58 $11,386.50 $12,045.04
2010-05-24 -966 -938 -947 -2851 $13,065.10 $11,984.44 $11,471.56 $12,135.03


Looking at ST (that concentrate on the last 5 market days), on April 28 after a very strong change of numbers between April 26 & 27, we have a valid sell signal, 
the next buy signal on May 15 and sell signal on May 19 the ST signal volatility threshold kick in and this system for the the all period goes in cash indicated by the orange background on the column of the "Balance ST" (note: every day we calculate the market volatility number, and on a signal day, if the volatility number is higher than that particular system threshold number, that system extract itself from the market going in cash mode indicated in the balance column by the orange background)
MT (that concentrate on the last 15 days of the market) has a sell signal on April 29, on the same day as the ST (usually same day signal or next day signal on ST & MT are very strong signals)
On May 12 signal, this system goes in cash and re-enter the market on the down signal on May 19.
On the positive days from May 12 to May 17 this system numbers remain very close to the zero line (the highest been 312)

LT (that concentrate on the last 45 days of the market) is always late to the party, but is a very important indicator, in the sense that if LT get involved means that really things are really chaged in the market and is not a temporary set-back. 
Also, in this period,  the sell signal on May 07 is very late, and is a going in cash mode signal, and the same for May 13 another in cash signal.
This system re-enter in the market on May 19 on a sell signal.
 TT (that is a system derived by the running balance of the other three systems numbers)  has same important sell signals as MT for this period and has also a in cash period in between,
TT also give  the red box indicated in the chart above when the number get lower than -2000
As stated before the last four column represent the running total of the four indicators results with a starting capital of $10000 on Feb 25, 2010, 

This triple system (with a fourth system (TT) derived by the other three systems numbers is quite valuable not only for:
 a) the various buy/sell signals generated
b) but also for the three daily system numbers and their position respect to the zero line (buy/sell line) but also their position in the scale and their position respect to +800 and above (bull area) and -800 and below (bear area)
 c) but also the interaction between the three system numbers between themselves and their position in the total scale (+1000 to -1000)
d) but also the daily changes in the numbers from previous day(s) to gage the speed of change in the market  



we suggest to visit beginning posts to learn the in-and-out of the system

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