Monday, April 30, 2012

IN&OUT OF THE SYSTEM

Been a daily system, on a daily basis I statistically test the market with three different time horizon:

ST is the short term test/indicator covering the action of the last 5 days in the market and coming up with the number that oscillate between -1000 and +1000

MT is the medium term test/indicator covering the action of the last 15 days in the market and coming up with the number that oscillate between -1000 and +1000

LT is the long term test/indicator covering the action of the last 45 days in the market and coming up with the number that oscillate between -1000 and +1000

TT is an extra indicator coming out from the sum of the previous 3 tests/indicators of the market (TT=ST+MT+LT), this one of course has reading going from -3000 to +3000

VOLATILITY THRESHOLD: every system has a timing harmony reacting to the action of countless buy & sell decision from investors in the market,
most of the time the market act with a low volatility movements reacting to the economy and a myriad of other reasons
but sometime investors create a nervous market easy picked up for any kind of volatility indicator,
during strong volatility periods the timing harmony in the market changes trowing a "monkey wrench" in the delicate timing of an investing system,
for this reason this daily system has a (proprietary) daily test of the volatility in the market and if:
the volatility reading is above the threshold (proprietary) of that particular indicator instead of a buy/sell signal that particular indicator go IN CASH MODE till the next buy/sell signal.

TRIGGER VALUE: for all the indicators the trigger line is the zero line,
when the indicator cross the zero line coming from a below zero to above zero reading we have a buy signal
when the indicator cross the zero line coming from a below zero to above zero reading we have a sell signal