MAR/APR 2010

 

DATE	ST	MT	LT	TT	BALANCE ST	BALANCE MT	BALANCE LT	BALANCE TT
2010-03-15	599	923	916	2438	$11,202.14	$11,202.14	$11,202.14	$11,202.14
2010-03-16	628	932	918	2478	$11,339.27	$11,339.27	$11,339.27	$11,339.27
2010-03-17	695	926	914	2535	$11,380.23	$11,380.23	$11,380.23	$11,380.23
2010-03-18	695	912	910	2517	$11,460.37	$11,460.37	$11,460.37	$11,460.37
2010-03-19	251	895	897	2043	$11,328.58	$11,328.58	$11,328.58	$11,328.58
2010-03-22	183	762	894	1839	$11,531.61	$11,531.61	$11,531.61	$11,531.61
2010-03-23	297	781	896	1974	$11,697.24	$11,697.24	$11,697.24	$11,697.24
2010-03-24	367	803	903	2073	$11,585.04	$11,585.04	$11,585.04	$11,585.04
2010-03-25	42	525	894	1461	$11,535.17	$11,535.17	$11,535.17	$11,535.17
2010-03-26	-264	119	878	733	$11,576.14	$11,576.14	$11,576.14	$11,576.14
2010-03-29	-155	99	881	825	$11,682.99	$11,679.43	$11,679.43	$11,679.43
2010-03-30	42	290	893	1225	$11,606.13	$11,754.23	$11,754.23	$11,754.23
2010-03-31	69	346	907	1322	$11,656.41	$11,654.50	$11,654.50	$11,654.50
2010-04-01	180	404	917	1501	$11,645.72	$11,643.81	$11,643.81	$11,643.81
2010-04-05	454	607	929	1990	$11,852.35	$11,850.40	$11,850.40	$11,850.40
2010-04-06	912	866	926	2704	$11,918.25	$11,916.30	$11,916.30	$11,916.30
2010-04-07	895	865	930	2690	$11,873.72	$11,871.77	$11,871.77	$11,871.77
2010-04-08	493	782	926	2201	$11,907.57	$11,905.61	$11,905.61	$11,905.61
2010-04-09	464	724	926	2114	$12,055.41	$12,053.43	$12,053.43	$12,053.43
2010-04-12	525	851	929	2305	$12,073.22	$12,071.24	$12,071.24	$12,071.24
2010-04-13	573	887	932	2392	$12,197.91	$12,195.90	$12,195.90	$12,195.90
2010-04-14	815	882	933	2630	$12,491.81	$12,489.76	$12,489.76	$12,489.76

Visually In this up leg of the market we have some slowdown visible in the pink band converging with the gold band.

The ST (short term) indicator concentrating on the last 5 days of market action picked up the weakness going a couple of days on the sell side.
Also to be noticed that ST numbers were already deteriorating from March 15, but the weakness in the market was picked up also by MT (medium term) indicator concentrating on the last 15 days of market action, closing for one day in double digit positive number (99) near the zero sign changing line,
LT(long term) indicator concentrating on the last 45 days of market action, was not affected by the weakness indicated by numbers all above the +800 bull line.
TT green boxes (values above +2000) indicate all in all a very healthy market

Looking at the QQQ chart we can notice the price going parabolic the last couple of days of the considered period shown by the price dissociating from the pink band and the spreading out of the three shorter MAs (moving averages)

On the last day (Apr 14) we can notice all three indicator (ST MT LT) in bull area above +800 and actually LT in extreme bull area above +900 

This triple system (with a fourth system (TT) derived by the other three systems numbers is quite valuable not only for:
 a) the various buy/sell signals generated
b) but also for the three daily system numbers and their position respect to the zero line (buy/sell line) but also their position in the scale and their position respect to +800 and above (bull area) and -800 and below (bear area)
 c) but also the interaction between the three system numbers between themselves and their position in the total scale (+1000 to -1000)
d) but also the daily changes in the numbers from previous day(s) to gage the speed of change in the market  

FEB 2010

I am going to present month by month all the action of this system.

This triple system start from Feb 25, 2010 with all 4 signal on the buy side,

the action is presented on an hourly chart, same set up I use every day to make my market decision.

For this period the market was in a nice strong up-leg,


visually you can see a first phase with the price in a strong momentum going over the pink band,
we have a cool down of the price action toward the end of the chart with price visiting the pink band.


on the chart you see also the first buy for all for indicators on Feb 25, 2010, you also see the green box present only when the TT indicator goes over +2000 points indicating a strong positive market


here following is the spreadsheet:

DATE	ST	MT	LT	TT	BALANCE ST	BALANCE MT	BALANCE LT	BALANCE TT
2010-02-25	84	672	204	960	$10,000.00	$10,000.00	$10,000.00	$10,000.00
2010-02-26	322	838	256	1416	$10,058.77	$10,058.77	$10,058.77	$10,058.77
2010-03-01	497	917	375	1789	$10,341.94	$10,341.94	$10,341.94	$10,341.94
2010-03-02	769	925	519	2213	$10,404.27	$10,404.27	$10,404.27	$10,404.27
2010-03-03	934	923	615	2472	$10,429.21	$10,429.21	$10,429.21	$10,429.21
2010-03-04	912	932	651	2495	$10,495.10	$10,495.10	$10,495.10	$10,495.10
2010-03-05	946	937	773	2656	$10,804.99	$10,804.99	$10,804.99	$10,804.99
2010-03-08	934	942	871	2747	$10,854.85	$10,854.85	$10,854.85	$10,854.85
2010-03-09	922	940	910	2772	$11,002.67	$11,002.67	$11,002.67	$11,002.67
2010-03-10	828	935	910	2673	$11,152.27	$11,152.27	$11,152.27	$11,152.27
2010-03-11	842	935	914	2691	$11,232.41	$11,232.41	$11,232.41	$11,232.41
2010-03-12	791	929	919	2639	$11,248.44	$11,248.44	$11,248.44	$11,248.44
2010-03-15	599	923	916	2438	$11,202.14	$11,202.14	$11,202.14	$11,202.14
2010-03-16	628	932	918	2478	$11,339.27	$11,339.27	$11,339.27	$11,339.27
2010-03-17	695	926	914	2535	$11,380.23	$11,380.23	$11,380.23	$11,380.23
2010-03-18	695	912	910	2517	$11,460.37	$11,460.37	$11,460.37	$11,460.37
2010-03-19	251	895	897	2043	$11,328.58	$11,328.58	$11,328.58	$11,328.58
2010-03-22	183	762	894	1839	$11,531.61	$11,531.61	$11,531.61	$11,531.61
2010-03-23	297	781	896	1974	$11,697.24	$11,697.24	$11,697.24	$11,697.24
2010-03-24	367	803	903	2073	$11,585.04	$11,585.04	$11,585.04	$11,585.04

I consider indicator numbers over 800 as bull area numbers
number over 900 indicate very strong market
the last four columns are the running balances of an investment of $10000 started Feb 25, 2010

This triple system (with a fourth system (TT) derived by the other three systems numbers is quite valuable not only for:
 a) the various buy/sell signals generated
b) but also for the three daily system numbers and their position respect to the zero line (buy/sell line) but also their position in the scale and their position respect to +800 and above (bull area) and -800 and below (bear area)
 c) but also the interaction between the three system numbers between themselves and their position in the total scale (+1000 to -1000)
d) but also the daily changes in the numbers from previous day(s) to gage the speed of change in the market  

SO MANY CLOURS, SO LITTLE TIME

Following is a presentation of the computer version in a spreadsheet form for the last month of data:

2012-04-12	-312	-703	-562	-1577	$19,699.13	$18,281.93	$11,184.63	$24,290.29
2012-04-13	-66	-433	-336	-835	$19,699.13	$18,814.88	$11,510.68	$24,998.39
2012-04-16	102	-372	-284	-554	$19,699.13	$19,228.07	$11,763.46	$25,547.37
2012-04-17	157	-343	-246	-432	$19,699.13	$18,473.55	$11,301.87	$24,544.89
2012-04-18	231	-199	-118	-86	$19,699.13	$18,557.39	$11,353.15	$24,656.27
2012-04-19	191	-84	-71	36	$19,699.13	$18,946.62	$11,591.28	$25,173.43
2012-04-20	-27	-178	-128	-333	$19,699.13	$19,078.36	$11,671.88	$25,173.43
2012-04-23	-199	-325	-250	-774	$19,699.13	$19,407.71	$11,873.37	$24,708.27
2012-04-24	-80	-293	-286	-659	$19,699.13	$19,635.26	$12,012.58	$24,997.97
2012-04-25	26	-35	-180	-189	$19,699.13	$18,575.35	$11,364.14	$23,648.58
2012-04-26	487	339	120	946	$19,699.13	$18,365.77	$11,235.92	$23,381.75
2012-04-27	919	795	396	2110	$19,699.13	$18,286.07	$11,187.17	$23,280.29
2012-04-30	895	835	418	2148	$19,699.13	$18,029.37	$11,030.12	$22,953.48
2012-05-01	612	830	418	1860	$19,699.13	$18,082.27	$11,062.48	$23,020.83
2012-05-02	246	636	361	1243	$19,699.13	$18,166.28	$11,113.88	$23,127.78
2012-05-03	-54	309	268	523	$19,699.13	$17,788.24	$10,882.60	$22,646.49
2012-05-04	-449	-64	-44	-557	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,342.94	$21,523.47
2012-05-07	-882	-392	-297	-1571	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,096.28	$21,523.47
2012-05-08	-814	-535	-439	-1788	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,164.42	$21,523.47
2012-05-09	-527	-541	-471	-1539	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,204.68	$21,523.47
2012-05-10	-274	-539	-531	-1344	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,269.71	$21,523.47
2012-05-11	-282	-548	-562	-1392	$19,699.13	$16,906.14	$10,269.71	$21,523.47

for sure this is the last time you can see an up to date version unless you subscribe and become a member.
HOW TO INTERPRET:
the easy one is the first column been the date column
the three following column represent the current number for
ST 2nd column, positive number have the column color, negative number on red background
MT 3rd column positive number have the column color, negative number on red background
LT 4th column positive number have the column color, negative number on red background
TT 5th column the sum of the previous 3 indicators, positive number have the column color, negative number on red background, also on this column numbers over +2000 get a green background and number under -2000 get a dark red background (not present in the last month of data)
6th to 9th columns represent the running balances with a starting capital of $10000 on Feb 24, 2010,
column 6th is the running balance of the ST system
column 7th is the running balance of the MT system
column 8th is the running balance of the LT system
column 9th is the running balance of the TT system
if the system is on trade they have the column background showing, when the system is instead in cash (actual volatility of the market is above the volatility threshold of that particular system) the background colour change to orange.
What is very important about this system is keeping track of the daily interaction between the numbers of all 4 indicators (ST, MT, LT, MT) to get a sense of the market and general mood in it.

THE COMPUTER VERSION OF THE SYSTEM

I have done a computer version of this system.
Every day the computer take the statistical results for the ST, MT and LT and does the following:

-a) if the new day result has the SAME sign of the previous day result just update the previous day balance amount with the new QLD[QID] value (if the indicator have a positive sign)[if the indicator have a negative sign]

-b) if the new day result have CHANGED sign from the previous day result check the volatility of the market and compare with the volatility threshold of that particular indicator and:
-b1 if the indicator volatility threshold is HIGHER than the market volatility than execute the trade taking the previous day money balance and at the market open switch the total amount from QLD to QID if previous day result had a positive sign and now has a negative sign[QID to QLD if previous day result had a negative sign and now has a positive sign]
-b2 if the indicator volatility threshold is LOWER than the market volatility than put that particular indicator in a cash mode until the next trade (change of the result sign)
all this is done also for the TT indicator that is a sum of the other three indicators.