Monday, July 2, 2012

END OF JUNE/JULY 2010

Visually, in this period the volatility is definitely cooling down and all the signal are valid (not exceeding the volatility threshold).
In this period we have a bottom beautifully indicated by the red box (TT under -2000, extreme oversold), 
After the red box on July 6 the price, on the first sign of strength get stopped at the pink band,
On July 7, the day after, price slice trough the pink band with no effort (second sign of strength, the first sign of strength is price challenging the pink band just one day after been rejected by the pink band)
In the following days that price show a very strong up-leg all the way over the gold band with just one day (July 12) retrace culminating with an overbought market indicated by the green box (TT above +2000)
In the last part of this chart, we have a price revisit under both band digesting the overbought condition than from July 20 another up-leg take us over both band already showing a bull harmonic (pink band above gold band).

here the numbers for this period:
DATE ST MT LT TT BALANCE ST BALANCE MT BALANCE LT BALANCE TT
2010-06-24 -951 -138 -368 -1457 $13,604.85 $10,916.57 $9,792.33 $12,736.58 69%
2010-06-25 -946 -107 -373 -1426 $13,658.08 $11,109.07 $9,830.65 $12,786.41 70%
2010-06-28 -827 -137 -405 -1369 $13,734.13 $11,170.92 $9,885.39 $12,857.61 57%
2010-06-29 -759 -300 -521 -1580 $14,775.21 $12,017.71 $10,634.73 $13,832.25 37%
2010-06-30 -935 -828 -705 -2468 $15,238.34 $12,394.40 $10,968.07 $14,265.82 18%
2010-07-01 -944 -925 -885 -2754 $15,346.33 $12,482.24 $11,045.80 $14,366.92 4%
2010-07-02 -956 -922 -888 -2766 $15,422.37 $12,544.09 $11,100.53 $14,438.11 4%
2010-07-06 -681 -925 -885 -2491 $15,323.51 $12,463.68 $11,029.38 $14,345.56 20%
2010-07-07 -106 -871 -835 -1812 $14,357.71 $11,678.13 $10,334.22 $13,441.40 71%
2010-07-08 409 -254 -499 -344 $14,205.62 $11,554.42 $10,224.75 $13,299.01 77%
2010-07-09 949 152 -58 1043 $14,484.26 $11,319.37 $10,016.75 $13,028.47 88%
2010-07-12 945 214 12 1171 $14,563.13 $11,418.31 $9,967.49 $13,142.35 81%
2010-07-13 946 401 148 1495 $14,920.63 $11,698.62 $9,863.58 $13,464.98 67%
2010-07-14 955 588 219 1762 $15,094.13 $11,834.65 $9,978.27 $13,621.55 60%
2010-07-15 961 895 317 2173 $15,130.93 $11,863.50 $10,002.60 $13,654.76 58%
2010-07-16 85 497 142 724 $14,297.62 $11,210.14 $9,451.73 $12,902.75 36%
2010-07-19 -150 194 -7 37 $14,528.95 $11,391.52 $9,604.65 $13,111.51 28%
2010-07-20 -168 132 -78 -114 $13,281.61 $11,653.27 $8,780.08 $13,412.79 24%
2010-07-21 -89 248 -23 136 $13,633.49 $11,350.29 $9,012.69 $14,407.13 29%
2010-07-22 254 690 196 1140 $12,952.19 $11,918.33 $8,562.31 $14,320.60 44%
2010-07-23 497 887 395 1779 $13,449.26 $12,071.67 $8,890.90 $14,504.85 42%


The first ST buy signal in this period is a touch late showing  with prices already above pink band, the sell signal is also late on the day of the bottom of the overbought retrace, the next buy signal late on price above pink band

MT (that concentrate on the last 15 days of the market) has a sell signal on June 25, this one is the last sell signal this time on the down leg.
The following buy signal, just one day after ST is late with price already above the pink band.

LT (that concentrate on the last 45 days of the market) has a late buy signal  just after MT buy signal (the three consecutive buy of the three system one day from each other demonstrate the strength of the market after the bottom). LT follow ST on the sell & subsequent buy on the overbought retrace.

 TT (that is a system derived by the running balance of the other three systems numbers)  has a buy signal with MT just n the middle of the up-leg and just one day sell/buy combination after that.


Is very important to follow the system numbers on a daily basis just to have a feel of the market in general, in this case MT numbers holding the positive side during the retrace of the market from July 16 to 20


the last column represent a percentile result of the correlation of the three system numbers between them compared to the same for the last three months of results
a 0% indicate that the 3 system numbers are the closest to each other in the last three months (we have a very close to that on a 4% for two days indicating extreme oversold similar numbers on July 1st & 2nd)
a 100% indicate that the 3 system numbers are the farther to each other in the last three months.


This triple system (with a fourth system (TT) derived by the other three systems numbers is quite valuable not only for:
- a) the various buy/sell signals generated
- b) but also for the three daily system numbers and their position respect to the zero line (buy/sell line) but also their position in the scale and their position respect to +800 and above (bull area) and -800 and below (bear area)
 -c) but also the interaction between the three system numbers between themselves and their position in the total scale (+1000 to -1000)
-d) but also the daily changes in the numbers from previous day(s) to gage the speed of change in the market now also indicated by change in percentile of the standard deviation (last column) for the last three month readings.